Plugged-in to Pandemic

Yesterday I spent both meals with friends from the university. Amazingly, both conversations included discussion on something that's on everyone's mind - swine flu. For once, I have an idea of what's going on in the world!

Please excuse me. I meant Influenza A. Seems to me this virus should have been renamed before the media got their claws into it, but the horse is out of the barn now.

Funnily, the WHO renamed the virus yesterday, and prominently displays the new name on the main virus webpage - but the URL still has "swineflu" in the address. The CDC, on the other hand, has "swine flu" written in enormous letters across its homepage, but the virus-specific URL reads "H1N1." I guess that's funny "strange," not funny "haha."

During lunch, I chatted about how flu presents in humans, and why it's a bit alarming that people who wouldn't usually die from influenza (not very young or very old) seem to be falling victim to this one.

And at dinner, we had a rousing discussion about the economic and social impacts of the disease in a country where Christians - the minority - keep the nation's pigs. In Egypt, pigs are mainly used for garbage disposal in the zabaleen communities, with a very small sideline economy generating pork for ex-pats. I'm sure you can figure out that these are the selfsame pigs. This realization did not make me happy.

So I was pleased this morning to wake up to Cairo-specific New York Times coverage on swine flu. As we predicted, the Egyptian government is reacting in a totally irrational manner that discriminates along religious lines and contributes to the already crushing poverty of Cairo's poorest citizens.

Not to mention that at this point, the disease is passed from human to human; closing the airport would be a far more effective means of flu control than slaughtering a few hundred thousand pigs. Or - dare I name it? - soap and water should do the trick nicely. But if you're a non-moderate Muslim and convinced that not only pigs but Christians are the enemy, clearly God is giving you a chance to do some mopping up - on both fronts.

Par for the course, really.

It's so demoralizing to see this sort of nonsense. I tell myself that this is why I teach Scientific Thinking - to educate Egypt's next generation of leaders away from illogical thinking and irresponsible behavior. And then on bad days I look at the work I receive, and I wonder if things will ever really change here ... or anywhere.

I really, really hope they do.

One last thought - globally there have been 257 cases of Influenza A reported in 11 countries. Nine of those countries have no reported deaths. The United States has had exactly one death out of 190 cases; the other deaths were in Mexico and were likely due to inadequate medical intervention.

Mexico is reporting a hundred confirmed cases and thousands of suspected cases, with only a handful of deaths confirmed to be caused by the virus. Someone walking into a hospital and saying they have the flu is not the same as actually having the flu. I think the numbers will go up in Mexico, but it's still important to think critically.

I also can't help but note that these reported figures don't actually add up. Clearly there's a lot of uncertainty about the extent of the flu, but uncertainty does not warrant panic.

Spanish influenza (also misnamed because it began in Kansas) killed tens of millions of people in 1918 - that's more people than were killed by World War I. That was a cause for fear. In this day and age, with soap, good health, and good hospitals, there's no need to panic over a few hundred cases.

Responsible, yes - hysterical, no. Just wash your hands and stay healthy.

I'm interested to see that Spanish influenza was also subtype H1N1. I'm going to stop this post here, on the off chance that that observation doesn't mean anything to you.

And remember, folks - influenza is caused by a virus. Antibiotics are worthless against viruses, so throw out that antibiotic sanitizer and stop harassing your doctor.